Week 10 Waiver Wire: Mack Hollins, Darren Waller, More

A player can't help you if another team already has him. Everybody on this list is sitting on waivers right now.

We care about what a guy is about to do, not what he did last Sunday. Rising touches, rising targets and a soft next opponent beat a big box score. Last week's points are the receipt.

Look at where the dot sits inside each bar. A long bar means a wide range of outcomes. Green bars are the ones to chase first.

Why is he free? Five games played, no big number, and nobody gets excited about a receiver without a big number.

Now here's a guy. Mack Hollins is rostered in 8.1 percent of Sleeper leagues, the lowest of the eight, and only 2.4 percent start him. But the role is real. He plays about 64 percent of the snaps. His share of the targets has crept up to about 19 percent, and he's had a nine-target day.

New England visits Detroit as a 2.5 point underdog in a game with a 51.5 total. Detroit is the eighth softest matchup of 32 for receivers. A team that trails throws the ball.

The sources barely argue. He won't win your week, but he's a flex you can trust.

Chig Okonkwo is ranked higher this week. I'd still take Waller, and here's why.

Start with Sunday. Carolina visits New Orleans, the seventh softest matchup in football for tight ends. Okonkwo gets a tougher one. Carolina is also expected to score 23.0, while Washington is stuck at 19.0.

Then the season. Waller averages 9.6 a game and is TE16. Okonkwo averages 7.5 and is TE24.

And last week was 23.0. BOOM. That was 10 targets, 27 percent of Carolina's throws. But he's a dud in 38 percent of his games, and his three-game share is only about 13 percent. One night doesn't make a role.

He's going fast, so don't wait on this one.

Nine carries, 85 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville. That's the 18.2 everybody saw.

Here's the half that's true. The week before, he saw eight targets, a 31 percent share. His share of the carries has since climbed to about 18 percent from about 12. Real work, from two directions, and it's why he's worth the spot.

Here's the half that isn't. He's been a dud in 56 percent of his games, and Baltimore's game total is a low 38.5. The sources fight over him, with CBS at 8.04 and FanDuel at 3.18. I'm closer to FanDuel this week.

He's free in most leagues, and that's changing by the hour.

Rostered in 40.3 percent of Sleeper leagues. Started in 4.8 percent. That gap tells you what most people think. They're holding him and not trusting him.

They're mostly right. He rarely gets a target, so he needs the ground game to work, and it often doesn't. He's startable in 12 percent of his games. The ceiling this week is 8.03.

Still, the direction is good. His share of the carries is about 35 percent now, up from about 29.

And the setting is the best on this list. San Francisco visits Dallas as a 4.5 point favorite with an implied total of 30.0. The Cowboys are the fourth softest matchup of 32 for backs.

Bhayshul Tuten is questionable. That's why Rodriguez is on this list. Rodriguez is questionable too, so check Sunday morning.

The workload was already moving his way. He played 45 percent of the snaps last week, up from about 27 on the season. His share of the carries is about 31 percent. He has four rushing touchdowns already.

Jacksonville visits Tennessee as a 10.5 point favorite with an implied total of 28.5. Winning teams run the ball late.

He doesn't catch passes, though. Five targets all year. That keeps his floor near the ground at 1.39. Sources are split too, ESPN at 4.3 and CBS at 8.11.

People are grabbing him already.

This one has a clock on it. Washington plays at the Giants on Thursday, so your lineup locks before most of your other decisions.

The case for him is the targets. He's seen about 18 percent of them lately, with seven last week. The case against is everything else. Washington is a 2.5 point underdog with an implied total of 19.0 in a 40.5 game. The Giants rank 22nd of 32 in softness, so that's a tougher one.

So why is he TE13 this week against TE24 for the season? The sources like his usage. I don't love the rest of the setup.

He's played six games and been a dud in half of them. Only 20.6 percent of Sleeper leagues roster him.

Let's get the ugly part out first. He averages 8.0 a game over four games. That's QB34 of 35. He has never been startable.

His last three games slid the wrong way, from 17.32 to 10.18 to 7.28. One touchdown pass and one interception on 68 attempts doesn't help.

So why list him? Washington visits New York on Thursday, and it's the fifth softest matchup of 32 for quarterbacks. The Giants are home favorites by 2.5. Sleeper has him at 15.87 and ESPN at 12.62. I'm closer to ESPN, because the game total is a modest 40.5.

He's rostered in 21.3 percent of Sleeper leagues, and 11.0 percent start him. They shouldn't.

Three games. That's the entire sample, and it's why he has no season rank.

The scores went 13.0, then 6.4, then 5.2. Wrong direction. His share of the targets is 13.5 percent, barely higher than the 12.8 he had on the season. Last week he saw four targets on about half the snaps.

So why bother? The game. San Francisco visits Dallas as a 4.5 point favorite and the total is 55.5. Dallas is the seventh softest matchup of 32 for receivers. Kaelon Black is in the same game.

The sources can't agree, and that's the story. Sleeper has him at 9.4 and ESPN at 4.9. I'm with ESPN.

Most leagues still have him sitting there.

Everyone is looking at a 24.48 and a 19.0. Look at the last one instead. It was 7.4 against Kansas City, on 32 attempts and 165 yards.

The Jets host Buffalo as an 8.5 point underdog with an implied total of 21.0. A trailing team throws, and that's his best case. But Buffalo is a tougher matchup for quarterbacks, 22nd of 32. His share of the rushing has also fallen to about 6 percent from 10.

He's QB17 this week. FleaFlicker sees 17.4 and ESPN sees 12.18. I'm with ESPN.

He's getting scooped up anyway. That's how people get burned.

• Eli Raridon, New England. Almost nobody has him. Detroit is the softest matchup for tight ends. His share of the targets is up to about 17 percent from about 11. He's TE23 this week. Stash.
• Malachi Fields, New York. Free nearly everywhere. He played 84 percent of the snaps last week, and his target share is about 19 percent, up from about 13. Watch.

How to read this. Floor and ceiling are the low and high ends of the projected range. Target share and carry share are the slice of a team's throws or runs that go to one player. Matchup rank runs from 1, softest, to 32, toughest. Rostered rates come from Sleeper leagues. Stats run through Week 9. Projections blend CBS, ESPN, FanDuel, FleaFlicker and Sleeper.