Week 10 WR Rankings: Who's Open and Who Gets the Ball

Getting open is the hardest job in football. There's a man in your face and a safety waiting behind him. Some guys beat all of it, then watch the ball go to somebody else.

The league tracks how much room every receiver has when the ball arrives. We lined that up against how often each guy gets thrown to. A few of these fellas should file a complaint.

Look at the bottom right. That's where the open guys live, and nobody's feeding them. Top left is the opposite. Those fellas are covered and get the ball anyway.

• 4.12 yds of separation · #2 of 88
• 73.8% catch rate
• 5.04 intended air yards
• +1.81 yds after catch over expected · #13 of 88

Now here's a guy. Khalil Shakir.

He's second in the whole league at getting open. About four yards of room, play after play. You could land a helicopter in there.

Buffalo throws him just under 19 percent of the targets. You can't catch the ball if they don't throw it to you.

So what is he? A flex, and the scores say so. His best game all year is 13.4, and the last three have slid from that 13.4 to 11.4 to 9.8. His share over those games is 17.3 percent. Buffalo isn't leaning on him harder.

Sunday has a nice team total, 29.5 points, with Buffalo favored by 8.5. The Jets are tough on receivers though, 25th of 32. Points should come, but not necessarily through him.

Can he be more than a flex? Only if his share climbs toward 23 percent, where the top quarter of receivers live. A third of leagues start him now, and that's about right.

• Germie Bernard · 3.72 yds of separation · #9 of 88
• 76.2% catch rate
• 4.71 intended air yards
• DK Metcalf · 2.48 yds of separation · #69 of 88
• 51.6% catch rate
• 11.74 intended air yards

Pittsburgh has one receiver who gets open and one who gets the ball. Lately the offense is feeding both.

DK Metcalf has 64 targets and 33 catches. Germie Bernard has 42 targets and 32 catches. Nearly the same haul from far fewer throws. Bernard is ninth at getting open. Metcalf is 69th, with a cornerback in his jersey most of the day.

Here's what matters. Metcalf's share is 27.6 percent over the last three, up from 23.9. Bernard's is 22.6, up from 18.2, and he's played at least 85 percent of the snaps in each of his last four.

Metcalf's problem is the catching. He went 20.3, then 7.6, then 1.4 with the targets staying fat. Deep throws that land half the time make a bumpy ride. Bernard's stretch leans on one 25.7. The other two were 5.7 and 8.0.

Cincinnati is a middle matchup and Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point underdog with 23.0 points expected. Metcalf has the higher ceiling, 16.22 to 13.63. Start him. Fewer than four in ten leagues do.

Bernard is the better bet to grow. Bench him, or add him if he's on your wire.

• 3.83 yds of separation · #7 of 88
• 67.4% catch rate
• 11.62 intended air yards
• +0.25 yds after catch over expected · #52 of 88

Nine games. Four of them 15 points or better, four under 6. That's Douglas.

The reason is the job. The ball travels more than eleven yards to him, and he's seventh of 88 at getting open. He plays about 57 percent of the snaps, so the chances are few and the swings are big. A 22.5 against Las Vegas. BOOM. Then a 1.9 against Pittsburgh.

His share is flat at 18.0 percent, so he's not getting more looks. He's cashing the ones he gets. Two weeks ago, 16.6 came on three targets. Four touchdowns on 46 targets is the other half of the story, and touchdowns come and go.

Detroit ranks 8th of 32 against receivers, which is soft. New England is a 2.5-point underdog in a game with a 51.5 total, so points are coming. Fewer than three in ten leagues start him.

• 2.2 yds of separation · #81 of 88
• 52.7% catch rate
• 12.08 intended air yards
• +1.27 yds after catch over expected · #21 of 88

Go to the top left of the chart. Covered, and fed anyway.

Washington gets about a quarter of Jacksonville's targets. He's 81st at getting open and catches barely over half of what's thrown. Five touchdowns hold the whole thing up.

The old sell-high story needs a fix. He isn't hot. He's already cooling. His last three went 10.4, 3.6 and 14.1, against a 13.7 season average. One of them was a two-target game, and his share is 21.8 percent over the three, down from 24.9.

The worry is still fair. A weak separation rank and that catch rate make a fragile base. His 30.4 in Week 5 props up the average.

This is the best spot he'll see. Tennessee is the softest matchup in football, 1st of 32. Jacksonville is favored by 10.5 with 28.5 points expected.

Everybody has him, 96.3 percent rostered and 87.5 started. So the decision isn't Sunday. It's when to sell.

• 1.77 yds of separation · #88 of 88
• 69.2% catch rate
• 14.41 intended air yards
• +0.11 yds after catch over expected · #56 of 88

This is the one that keeps me honest.

Mike Evans is last. 88th out of 88. Nobody has less room, and he still averages 14.5 points. Five of his six games were startable.

Some guys don't need to be open. They go get it. Being open helps. Being Mike Evans also helps. The average throw to him goes more than 14 yards and he catches 69.2 percent of them.

The targets are climbing too. His share is 27.3 percent over the last three, up from 23.5, and one of those games was a 26.3.

He's questionable, so check Sunday morning.

This week's projection of 3.77 reflects that. Dallas is a soft matchup, 7th of 32, and San Francisco is favored by 4.5 with 30.0 points expected. If he plays, the spot is good.

Here's the call for the weeks after. Hold him. Barely one in ten leagues is starting him now, and that's the price you pay for the tag. The production never needed separation. I'd only worry if his snaps, about 55 percent, keep shrinking.

• Malik Washington, Miami. He was open and fed on the season, 19th in separation with 24 percent of the targets. Lately the feeding stopped, and his share is 16.2 percent over the last three. Miami is expected to score only 17.5 points at Indianapolis, and he's had one good game in three. Hold.
• Rashee Rice, Kansas City. First of 88 in separation at 4.13 yards, and he's done it in only five games. His share jumped to 28.1 percent over the last three from 20.3, and his worst game all year is 9.9. Start.
• Xavier Worthy, Kansas City. He's 11th at getting open but 79th of 88 at gaining after the catch. Two of his last three games were 4.1 and 4.3, and this week's floor is zero. Sit.

These are the blended projections for this week, in PPR scoring. The range is each player's floor to ceiling.

How to read this. Separation is the average distance to the nearest defender when the ball arrives. Catch rate is catches per target. Intended air yards is how far downfield the average throw to him travels. Yards after catch over expected is how much more or less he gains after the catch than a typical receiver would. These come from NFL Next Gen Stats, through Week 9. Target share is the slice of a team's throws that go to one player. Matchup rank runs from 1, the softest defense against receivers, to 32, the toughest. Roster and start rates come from Sleeper leagues. Weekly ranks blend projections from CBS, ESPN, FanDuel, FleaFlicker and Sleeper.