Week 8 Fantasy Football Projections vs. Actual Results
Cincinnati and Tennessee Played Arena Football. We Projected a Football Game.
What we projected before kickoff in Week 8, what happened, and where we whiffed.
By Mohn Jadden · Week 8 · Written after the games, from projections as they stood before each kickoff
We started keeping receipts in Week 9. That felt a little convenient, so we went back and pulled Week 8 too.
Same rules. We took every player we ranked as a starter before kickoff, 94 of them, and put the projection next to the score.
See all 94 players: projected vs. actual
| Player | Team | Rank | Projected | Range | Actual | Diff | Landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB2 | 22.0 | 14.9 to 27.1 | 42.5 | +20.4 | above |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR7 | 18.0 | 9.2 to 24.2 | 37.5 | +19.5 | above |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | RB19 | 14.2 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 29.9 | +15.7 | above |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | RB18 | 14.3 | 6.9 to 20.2 | 28.7 | +14.4 | above |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | WR16 | 13.3 | 5.1 to 19.3 | 26.8 | +13.5 | above |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB13 | 15.6 | 9.3 to 20.6 | 27.9 | +12.3 | above |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | QB13 | 16.1 | 9.6 to 21.5 | 28.2 | +12.1 | above |
| Brock Bowers | LV | TE2 | 17.1 | 9.4 to 24.4 | 28.2 | +11.1 | above |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR4 | 21.3 | 12.0 to 27.8 | 31.1 | +9.8 | above |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB11 | 15.8 | 9.4 to 20.9 | 24.9 | +9.1 | above |
| Jonah Coleman | DEN | RB22 | 11.4 | 3.1 to 17.8 | 20.4 | +9.0 | above |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE12 | 9.7 | 4.1 to 14.8 | 18.6 | +8.9 | above |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB17 | 14.5 | 4.8 to 22.1 | 23.3 | +8.8 | above |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB12 | 15.3 | 5.9 to 22.9 | 23.2 | +7.8 | above |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR32 | 10.1 | 5.4 to 13.5 | 17.0 | +6.9 | above |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB15 | 15.0 | 8.6 to 20.2 | 21.3 | +6.3 | above |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE3 | 11.1 | 4.5 to 17.2 | 17.3 | +6.2 | above |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | WR28 | 10.5 | 3.6 to 15.5 | 16.6 | +6.1 | above |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR20 | 12.2 | 5.9 to 16.8 | 18.3 | +6.1 | above |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | WR18 | 12.5 | 7.1 to 16.4 | 18.6 | +6.1 | above |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR15 | 14.9 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 20.9 | +6.0 | inside |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE11 | 10.0 | 5.8 to 13.9 | 15.8 | +5.8 | above |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR35 | 9.5 | 4.5 to 13.2 | 15.0 | +5.5 | above |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB9 | 17.4 | 10.7 to 22.8 | 22.5 | +5.1 | inside |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | WR23 | 11.0 | 3.2 to 16.7 | 15.7 | +4.7 | inside |
| DJ Moore | BUF | WR19 | 12.3 | 5.8 to 16.9 | 16.6 | +4.3 | inside |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RB8 | 16.8 | 10.2 to 22.0 | 21.0 | +4.2 | inside |
| Keenan Allen | IND | WR35 | 9.6 | 3.7 to 13.8 | 13.7 | +4.1 | inside |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR23 | 11.1 | 4.8 to 15.7 | 14.9 | +3.8 | inside |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR41 | 9.0 | 4.0 to 12.7 | 12.7 | +3.7 | inside |
| Rachaad White | WAS | RB23 | 10.6 | 6.0 to 14.2 | 14.0 | +3.4 | inside |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB1 | 24.4 | 16.9 to 29.2 | 27.6 | +3.2 | inside |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB15 | 15.5 | 6.6 to 23.0 | 18.5 | +3.0 | inside |
| Rico Dowdle | PIT | RB30 | 8.8 | 4.9 to 11.8 | 11.6 | +2.8 | inside |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | QB11 | 16.5 | 9.8 to 22.1 | 19.0 | +2.5 | inside |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR30 | 10.2 | 5.4 to 13.8 | 12.6 | +2.4 | inside |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR38 | 9.3 | 4.5 to 12.8 | 11.6 | +2.3 | inside |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR40 | 9.2 | 2.9 to 13.7 | 11.4 | +2.2 | inside |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR11 | 15.5 | 5.0 to 23.0 | 17.3 | +1.8 | inside |
| Drake Maye | NE | QB3 | 20.9 | 13.9 to 26.0 | 22.5 | +1.6 | inside |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR2 | 23.5 | 12.3 to 31.3 | 25.0 | +1.5 | inside |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB1 | 23.6 | 13.6 to 31.8 | 24.8 | +1.2 | inside |
| Makai Lemon | PHI | WR27 | 10.5 | 2.0 to 16.6 | 11.7 | +1.2 | inside |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS | WR21 | 11.7 | 6.0 to 15.7 | 12.8 | +1.1 | inside |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | TE8 | 10.4 | 5.2 to 15.1 | 11.5 | +1.1 | inside |
| James Cook III | BUF | RB6 | 17.1 | 10.4 to 22.5 | 18.1 | +1.0 | inside |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE6 | 11.0 | 5.5 to 16.0 | 11.7 | +0.7 | inside |
| Trey McBride | ARI | TE1 | 19.6 | 9.9 to 28.8 | 20.2 | +0.6 | inside |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR15 | 14.1 | 4.6 to 20.8 | 14.3 | +0.2 | inside |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | WR37 | 9.5 | 4.8 to 12.9 | 9.7 | +0.2 | inside |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB7 | 19.4 | 12.7 to 24.6 | 19.4 | -0.1 | inside |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR1 | 24.3 | 10.8 to 33.8 | 23.8 | -0.5 | inside |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB9 | 16.7 | 7.9 to 23.7 | 16.1 | -0.6 | inside |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB4 | 20.8 | 11.9 to 27.3 | 19.8 | -1.0 | inside |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR42 | 8.8 | 2.0 to 13.8 | 7.7 | -1.1 | inside |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB18 | 14.2 | 5.3 to 21.3 | 12.4 | -1.8 | inside |
| Germie Bernard | PIT | WR26 | 10.5 | 4.2 to 15.1 | 8.0 | -2.5 | inside |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB11 | 16.6 | 10.1 to 21.8 | 14.0 | -2.6 | inside |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR8 | 17.1 | 5.3 to 25.4 | 14.3 | -2.8 | inside |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | TE9 | 10.3 | 5.0 to 15.2 | 7.5 | -2.8 | inside |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | RB29 | 8.9 | 3.4 to 13.1 | 6.0 | -2.9 | inside |
| KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE | WR33 | 9.9 | 3.8 to 14.3 | 6.7 | -3.2 | inside |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR13 | 15.3 | 5.2 to 22.5 | 11.8 | -3.5 | inside |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | WR18 | 13.2 | 4.6 to 19.4 | 9.6 | -3.6 | inside |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE10 | 10.2 | 5.3 to 14.7 | 6.5 | -3.7 | inside |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB24 | 10.6 | 4.1 to 15.6 | 6.9 | -3.7 | inside |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE4 | 11.5 | 4.0 to 18.5 | 7.2 | -4.3 | inside |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB16 | 14.8 | 7.4 to 20.6 | 10.3 | -4.5 | inside |
| Bryce Young | CAR | QB15 | 15.9 | 8.0 to 22.7 | 11.4 | -4.6 | inside |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB25 | 10.6 | 3.9 to 15.8 | 5.9 | -4.7 | inside |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB6 | 19.8 | 11.5 to 26.0 | 15.0 | -4.8 | inside |
| Tyler Warren | IND | TE7 | 10.7 | 6.3 to 14.6 | 5.8 | -4.8 | below |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB7 | 16.9 | 8.5 to 23.6 | 12.0 | -4.9 | inside |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB28 | 9.9 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 4.7 | -5.2 | inside |
| Kendrick Bourne | ARI | WR39 | 9.3 | 3.6 to 13.4 | 3.9 | -5.4 | inside |
| Ollie Gordon II | MIA | RB21 | 12.4 | 3.7 to 19.2 | 6.9 | -5.5 | inside |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB5 | 18.4 | 11.1 to 24.2 | 12.9 | -5.5 | inside |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR5 | 18.4 | 7.7 to 26.0 | 12.6 | -5.8 | inside |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | WR29 | 10.4 | 2.8 to 15.9 | 4.4 | -6.0 | inside |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB12 | 16.4 | 8.1 to 23.2 | 10.0 | -6.3 | inside |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE3 | 12.5 | 4.0 to 20.4 | 6.0 | -6.5 | inside |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB3 | 19.4 | 10.5 to 26.6 | 12.4 | -7.0 | inside |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB10 | 16.9 | 9.7 to 22.8 | 9.3 | -7.6 | below |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | RB26 | 10.1 | 5.8 to 13.4 | 2.3 | -7.8 | below |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | RB27 | 10.0 | 3.4 to 15.2 | 2.0 | -8.0 | below |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR14 | 14.9 | 4.9 to 22.0 | 6.8 | -8.1 | inside |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR3 | 21.7 | 11.2 to 29.1 | 12.8 | -8.9 | inside |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | WR22 | 11.3 | 5.4 to 15.6 | 1.4 | -9.9 | below |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB10 | 16.7 | 9.4 to 22.5 | 6.7 | -10.0 | below |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB4 | 18.4 | 10.3 to 25.0 | 6.7 | -11.8 | below |
| Parker Washington | JAX | WR9 | 16.5 | 8.6 to 22.1 | 3.6 | -12.9 | below |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | QB8 | 18.3 | 11.7 to 23.5 | 4.5 | -13.8 | below |
| Drake London | ATL | WR10 | 16.3 | 9.3 to 21.2 | 1.8 | -14.5 | below |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB2 | 22.2 | 13.4 to 29.4 | 7.6 | -14.7 | below |
One game in Cincinnati broke three projections at once
- Joe Burrow: projected 22.04, scored 42.48
- Tee Higgins: 17.97, scored 37.5
- Tony Pollard: 14.31, scored 28.7
We had Joe Burrow for 22. He scored 42. That's a whole extra quarterback.
Tee Higgins caught enough of it to double his number. Then Tony Pollard did the same thing from the other sideline. Three of our four biggest misses on the low side came out of one stadium.
That tells you where we went wrong. We had the players about right. We had the game wrong. When both teams score like that, every projection in the building comes up short.
Four sure things, and not one of them reached 8
- Bijan Robinson: projected 22.25, scored 7.6
- Javonte Williams: 18.45, scored 6.7
- Jonathan Taylor: 16.66, scored 6.7
- Parker Washington: 16.5, scored 3.6
Now the other pile.
Bijan Robinson was the second running back on our board. He gave you 7.6. Javonte Williams was fourth and gave you 6.7. Jonathan Taylor matched him, and Parker Washington brought home 3.6.
You started all four. So did everybody. That's the part of this game no projection fixes. Good players have bad Sundays, and they don't call ahead.
The ones we'll frame
- Trevor Lawrence: projected 19.45, scored 19.4
- Garrett Wilson: 14.09, scored 14.3
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 24.33, scored 23.8
Trevor Lawrence was projected for 19.45 and scored 19.4. Garrett Wilson landed within a quarter point. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, our top receiver that week, came in about half a point under.
The whole scorecard
Out of those 94 players, 61 landed inside the range we gave. Twenty-two blew through the top and 11 fell out the bottom.
Twice as many went over as went under. It was a high-scoring week, and we were light.
Week 8 Projections vs. Results FAQ
Who were the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 8?
Joe Burrow scored 42.48 PPR points against a projection of 22.04. Tee Higgins scored 37.5 on a projection of 17.97, and Tony Pollard scored 28.7 on 14.31 in the same game. Bhayshul Tuten scored 29.9 on a projection of 14.24.
Who were the biggest fantasy football busts of Week 8?
Bijan Robinson scored 7.6 points on a projection of 22.25. Javonte Williams scored 6.7 on 18.45, Jonathan Taylor scored 6.7 on 16.66, and Parker Washington scored 3.6 on 16.5.
How close were Week 8 fantasy projections to what happened?
Of 94 projected starters who played, 61 scored inside their projected floor-to-ceiling range. Twenty-two scored above their ceiling and 11 scored below their floor.
How to read this. Projections are the blend as it stood before each team's kickoff, in PPR scoring. Only players we ranked as starters at their position are counted, and only if they played. The range is each player's projected floor to ceiling. This piece was written after Week 8 was played.
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