Week 10 Fantasy Projections: Where Sources Disagree

Nobody needs me to tell them to start their best player. You're going to play him. The hard part is the guy in the middle, where five projection outfits can't agree on a number.

So here are nine of those guys. Five starts and four sits. When the sources split this wide, one side has a football reason. I'll tell you which side, and why.

See all 20 players the sources split on

Player	Team	Rank	Low	Blend	High	Gap
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	WR21	CBS 6.5	11.6	FanDuel 14.4	7.8
Bijan Robinson	ATL	RB4	ESPN 15.7	19.4	FanDuel 23.5	7.8
Ryan Flournoy	DAL	WR33	ESPN 6.4	9.6	CBS 13.4	7.0
Tee Higgins	CIN	WR5	ESPN 13.4	17.4	FleaFlicker 20.2	6.8
Isaiah Likely	NYG	TE4	ESPN 10.1	13.3	FleaFlicker 16.1	6.0
George Pickens	DAL	WR20	CBS 8.1	11.7	FanDuel 13.9	5.9
Ollie Gordon II	MIA	RB14	CBS 11.7	14.2	ESPN 17.5	5.8
Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR6	ESPN 14.4	16.9	FleaFlicker 20.2	5.8
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	RB15	CBS 10.7	13.4	ESPN 16.3	5.6
Brock Purdy	SF	QB2	ESPN 19.0	21.6	CBS 24.5	5.5
Geno Smith	NYJ	QB16	ESPN 12.2	14.7	FleaFlicker 17.4	5.3
Tyler Warren	IND	TE6	ESPN 9.3	11.9	CBS 14.6	5.3
Trey McBride	ARI	TE2	ESPN 13.0	15.3	CBS 18.2	5.2
Chase Brown	CIN	RB13	ESPN 11.6	14.3	FanDuel 16.7	5.1
Alvin Kamara	NO	RB30	Sleeper 5.5	8.6	CBS 10.6	5.0
Jayden Daniels	WAS	QB9	FanDuel 17.0	18.2	CBS 21.5	4.4
Sam LaPorta	DET	TE7	ESPN 8.7	11.4	Sleeper 12.8	4.1
Travis Kelce	KC	TE5	ESPN 9.6	11.9	FanDuel 13.4	3.8
C.J. Stroud	HOU	QB12	CBS 15.9	17.7	ESPN 19.5	3.6
Drake Maye	NE	QB3	CBS 18.4	20.4	Sleeper 21.9	3.5

Red is the low source. Green is the high one. A long bar is an argument, and the white dot is where the blend lands.

Now here's a guy. Jakobi Meyers.

ESPN says 14.8. The other four sit between 9.7 and 10.9. Take the middle and he's a fine flex. Side with ESPN and he's a starter.

I'm closer to ESPN. Tennessee is the softest defense in football against receivers, number one of 32. Jacksonville is a 10.5 point favorite with a team total of 28.5. His share of the targets is up too, about 22 percent over three games against 17 for the year.

And he gets open. Fourteenth of 80 receivers in separation.

The risk is the score. A big lead means more handoffs late. He's listed Questionable, so check Sunday morning.

CBS has him at 6.5. FanDuel and Sleeper have him at 14.3. That's a whole flex spot between the high and the low.

Here's what CBS is looking at. An 8.4 and a 4.6 in two of his last three games. His share of the targets has slid to about 23 percent from 28.

Here's what the others see. In his last game he scored 14.3 and drew about 39 percent of the Jets' targets. Buffalo is an 8.5 point favorite in New York, and the game total is 50.5. The Jets will be throwing from behind.

He's still a 14.2 a game receiver over the season. One cold stretch doesn't erase that. He's listed Questionable.

I side with the high end. Volume is the one thing that comes back first.

Here's what we know. Two games. A 5.9 and a 9.6. Neither looks like a 13.4 projection, and the sources feel it. ESPN says 16.3. CBS says 10.7.

Watch what moved between those games. His share of Seattle's carries went from about 32 percent to about 48. The snaps went from 37 percent to 57. That's a role growing in real time.

Now the spot. Seattle is a 6.5 point favorite at Las Vegas, and the Raiders are the third softest defense against backs. Favorites run the ball late.

The catch is the game total, only 40.5. Points won't be plentiful.

Nearly six in ten leagues are already starting him. They're not crazy.

He picked up 149,576 adds on Sleeper in two days. Everybody wants a piece of the Dallas offense.

I get it. Dallas has a team total of 26.0 and the game total is 55.5. Somebody is going to catch those points.

CBS says 13.4. ESPN says 6.4. The season sides with ESPN. He averages 9.3 and has cleared 13 only twice. Last week he played 97 percent of the snaps and drew about 9 percent of the targets.

You can't catch a pass that's thrown to somebody else.

And San Francisco ranks 26th of 32 against receivers as a group. A shootout helps the guys who get fed.

Same game as Flournoy, same tough defense, bigger name. The sources split here too. CBS is at 8.1 and FanDuel is at 13.9.

Forget the points for a second and look at the playing time. He was on the field for 88 percent of the snaps in Week 6. Then it was 60, and then 57. When the snaps fall like that, the targets follow, and they did. In his last game he saw about 14 percent of Dallas's targets.

San Francisco ranks 26th of 32 against receivers as a group. That's the same wall in front of Flournoy.

He's listed Questionable, so the news matters here.

Nearly two in three leagues are starting him. I'd leave that to them.

Flip the Dallas game around. San Francisco's team total is 29.5, and the Cowboys are the seventh softest defense against receivers.

FanDuel has him at 12.5. CBS has 7.1. I'm with FanDuel, and here's why. The 49ers are favored by 3.5 in a game with a total of 55.5. Somebody on that side has to catch the touchdowns.

Now the honest part. He plays a little over half the snaps, and he's had a dud in one of every five games. A 2.5 in Week 5 will stay in your head.

But his average is 12.1 over five games, and only one in five leagues is starting him. He's listed Questionable.

In Week 6 he scored 20.3. Two games later it was 7.6, and then 1.4. That's a roller coaster, and ESPN's 8.6 is a reaction to the bottom of it.

Ignore the box score and count the targets. About 28 percent of Pittsburgh's looks over three games, against 24 for the year. He's played at least 92 percent of the snaps every week.

Pittsburgh is a 3.5 point underdog in a game with a total of 49.5. Trailing teams throw. FanDuel's 13.3 is the number that sees it.

The honest worry is that he doesn't get open. He's 62nd of 80 receivers in separation. He wins contested balls, and that's why his weeks swing.

Fewer than half of leagues are starting him.

Look at his season average and you'd start him. He's 15th among tight ends at 9.9 a game.

Now look at where it came from. A 21.5 at Indianapolis in Week 5, and a 15.6 in Week 1. Everything else is 11.6 or less.

Sleeper has him at 11.1. ESPN has 6.5. I'm with ESPN. His snaps fell from 72 percent in Week 6 to 53 in the next two. The target share is about 10 percent lately against 13 on the year.

Cincinnati is a soft draw for tight ends. That's the case for him. But a soft matchup can't fix a role that's shrinking, and he's had a dud in nearly four of every ten games.

Barely two in ten leagues are starting him. They have it right.

Team total of 17.0. Game total of 38.5. Los Angeles is a 4.5 point underdog at Baltimore, and it's a Monday night, so you can't wait and see.

CBS has him at 6.2. Sleeper has 11.7. I side with the low end.

He's a boom or bust receiver. A 19.2 in Week 1, a 2.7 in Week 6. A third of his games have been duds, and he draws about 13 percent of the targets.

Baltimore ranks 11th of 32 against receivers as a group. That's a middling draw, and it won't rescue a 17-point offense. He averages 8.6 on the year.

Half of leagues are starting him. That's the decision.

He's listed Questionable. Check his status before you lock anyone else in.

How to read this. Each projection comes from one of five sources: CBS, ESPN, FanDuel, FleaFlicker and Sleeper. The blend is their combined projection. Target share and carry share are a player's portion of his team's targets or rushes. Matchup ranks run from 1, the softest defense against the position, to 32, the toughest. Separation is how many yards of room a receiver has from the nearest defender when the ball arrives. Roster, start and add numbers come from Sleeper leagues. Stats run through Week 9.