Week 10 WR Rankings: Tiers, Starts and Sits

Four receivers stand in tier 1 at 20.8 to 23.1 projected points: Smith-Njigba, Lamb, Chase and St. Brown. Start them. The real work is tier 3, where thirty receivers share a range of 8.0 to 12.8.

Matchup and target share separate that crowd better than rank does. Jakobi Meyers draws the softest defense against receivers. Jalen Coker and Garrett Wilson have both lost targets in recent weeks.

Look at the length of each bar. A short bar is a safe week. A long bar is a gamble.

Blended from CBS, ESPN, FanDuel, FleaFlicker and Sleeper. Full PPR. Opp is this week's opponent. Range runs from floor to ceiling.

A tier is a group the projections treat as close to the same. Take the highest tier you can and stop splitting hairs inside it.

Meyers is WR23 and projects 11.3, but the setup is better than that rank. Jacksonville visits Tennessee as 10.5 point favorites with a team total of 28.5. Tennessee ranks first of 32 as the softest defense against receivers. His share of the targets is 21.7 percent over the last three games, up from 16.7 percent for the season. His season average is only 9.4, so he has been a depth piece until now. The sources are split, from 14.8 at ESPN to 9.7 at Sleeper. He is Questionable, so check the news first. Leagues roster him at 61.9 percent and start him at 31.0 percent. Start him if he plays.

Williams is WR17 and projects 12.1. Last week he scored 5.0, and that drops him in a lot of minds. Look at the three games together. He posted 26.1, 17.0 and then the 5.0, an average of 16.0. His season average is 13.2, which is WR24. Detroit hosts New England with a team total of 27.0 and a game total of 51.5. New England ranks second softest against receivers. His share of the targets is 20.3 percent over the last three games, against 17.1 percent for the season. The range is wide, with a floor of 5.3 and a ceiling of 17.0. Start him.

Hollins is WR39 and projects 8.5. He is rostered in only 9.5 percent of leagues. He has played five games, so the sample is small. In the last three he scored 14.7, 8.3 and 12.6, an average of 11.9. New England is a 2.5 point underdog at Detroit, but the game total is 51.5 and the team total is 24.5. Detroit ranks eighth softest against receivers. Trailing teams throw, and that helps him. Do not expect a star. The sources sit close together, with a spread of 1.94, so the number is steady. He is a flex or bye week fill and not a long term hold.

Coker opened the year with 33.8 against Chicago, and that game still shapes how he is seen. Since then he has scored 1.9, 9.6 and 6.6 in his last three games, an average of 6.0. His season average of 12.6 is WR28, and it hides the slide. His share of the targets is 13.9 percent over the last three games, against 20.1 percent for the season. Carolina is a 2.5 point underdog at New Orleans with a team total of 23.0. The game total of 48.5 is good, and the projection is 11.8. The usage does not back that number. Sit him if you can.

Wilson is WR21 and projects 11.6, but the range runs from 2.4 to 18.3. That is the widest range among the receivers here. The sources are far apart too, from 6.51 at CBS to 14.36 at FanDuel. He is Questionable, which is part of why. His season average is 14.2, which is WR19, and he had 26.7 and 23.4 earlier in the year. The last three games were 8.4, 4.6 and 14.3. New York is an 8.5 point underdog against Buffalo with a team total of 21.0. A trailing team does throw, but a trailing team also stalls. Play someone steadier.

Collins is WR16 and projects 12.8. He averages 15.3 per game, also WR16, across six games. That is a strong season. The last three games are mixed. He scored 10.9, 2.6 and 15.5, and his share of the targets is 14.8 percent against 20.2 percent for the season. Houston is a 4.5 point favorite at Cleveland with a team total of 23.0. Cleveland ranks 21st of 32 against receivers, which is a middle matchup. He is rostered in 98.4 percent of leagues and started in 91.1 percent. Do not sell low, and do not expect his early ceiling. Start him as a WR2.

Defense rank 1 is the softest matchup for the position and 32 is the toughest. Team total is the points the game line gives his team.

Soft draws among the starters:

Tough draws among the starters:

Position rank this week against last week's. Only moves of 3 spots or more. Risers are ranked inside the top 48 now. Fallers were inside it last week.

Risers:

Fallers:

Check Sunday morning before you lock anyone in a questionable tag.

On bye in Week 10: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.

How to read this. Projections blend CBS, ESPN, FanDuel, FleaFlicker and Sleeper, as published for Week 10. Rostered is the share of Sleeper leagues that hold the player. Tiers group players whose projections sit close together. Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentile of how scores have landed around projections like this one. They are a range, not a promise. Defense rank is points allowed to the position, where 1 is softest. Team total is the points the game line gives his team. Stats run through Week 9. Scoring is full PPR.